by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-10-15 14:29:46
NFL DFS season is in full swing as Week 6 approaches, and our expert analysts are breaking down NFL DFS lineup optimizer picks and projections for FanDuel and DraftKings. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
Week 5 saw a bunch of new injuries and guys landing on IR, headlined by Justin Jefferson, Devon Achane, Anthony Richardson, and James Conner. Gardner Minshew takes over at QB for the Colts and will get a familiar opponent in the Jaguars whom he used to play for. In other QB news, Deshaun Watson will remain out with a shoulder injury, and PJ Walker will get the start in a rough matchup with SF.
With Jefferson out indefinitely, it’s a big opportunity for the rookie Jordan Addison to show he can be a WR1, while KJ Osborn and TJ Hockenson will also get big target bumps. Raheem Mostert is back to being the clear RB1 in Miami with Achane out and Wilson doubtful, and he’s a top play in all formats. Keaontay Ingram will return for the Cardinals and will be in the mix for RB touches with Emari Demercado and Tony Jones, although the former two are expected to get the bulk of the work.
The status of Tee Higgins and Roschon Johnson will be big for the DFS landscape this week, as JaMarr Chase could be looking at another monster target share after seeing 19 targets last week, while Johnson would be the RB1 for the Bears with Herbert out indefinitely and a top value play (Update: Roschon is OUT, Higgins is PROBABLE). The Texans will get Noah Brown back from IR, but could be without Tank Dell, as he deals with a concussion and Robert Woods Q with a rib injury but expected to play, and the Patriots will get Tyquan Thornton back from IR but will be without both Smith-Schuster and Douglas. Miles Sanders is now out for the Panthers, so Chuba Hubbard becomes a viable cash game value play.
Cooper Kupp got right back in to the groove with Stafford, going for 8-118 on 12 targets last week, while Jonathan Taylor was eased in for the Colts but is expected to see an increased workload this week. Breece Hall was unleashed as expected, turning 25 touches in to 194 total yards and a TD. He remains a strong value play on both sites even in a tougher matchup with the Eagles.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks for DraftKings
With Jefferson and Achane hurt along with Kelce and Andrews off the slate, we only have six players priced above $8,000, and four of those are at WR. McCaffrey ($9,500) is the most expensive play of the slate against a tough Browns defense, Hill ($9,300) may not see a full compliment of snaps if the Dolphins blow out the Panthers early, and Kupp ($9,000) is still competing for targets with Nacua, Atwell, and Higbee and will need a similar line as last week at minimum to pay off his high salary. This leaves Chase ($8,300) as my favorite spend up to target, especially if Higgins is out again, while Hurts ($8,200) and Adams ($8,100) are top GPP targets but likely won’t make my cash game lineup. If the Browns do end up starting Walker at QB, then the SF DST ($4,000) will be the clear top defense to target, but if you’d rather punt the position, I really like the Bucs DST ($2,300) at home against Detroit.
Raheem Mostert ($6,400)
Even if Jeff Wilson plays and it’s a 50/50 split in the backfield, I’d still consider Mostert a top cash game play at this low of a salary. We’re more likely to see a 60/40 split in Mostert’s favor at worst, and with the potential for a 70/30 split or even higher in Mostert’s favor, I just can’t see fading him as a 13.5-point home favorite against a Panthers defense allowing 140.8 rush yards per game. With Achane out of the picture, Mostert could see a few extra targets as well, and he should get the first look in most goal-line scenarios. He’s still one of the fastest players in the league, so there’s always a chance for a long TD anytime he touches the ball. Salaries were released before we learned about Achane going on IR, so Mostert would usually be at least $7,200 in this spot, so take advantage of this big mispricing before his price likely jumps a lot next game. (Update: Wilson is now out making Mostert an even better cash game play)
DJ Moore ($6,500)
Speaking of salaries that didn’t go up enough, Moore’s only increased $800 after his 52 FP explosion last game, and he draws another excellent matchup against a Vikings defense allowing 240 passing yards per game. Moore is dominating the target share, with 6-10 targets in every game since Week 2, including 5 TDs in that span, and I just think he is way too cheap given his likely 15+ FP floor in a great matchup. Pairing him with Justin Fields ($7,300) is one of my favorite cash game stacks, and I would even include Cole Kmet ($4,600) in the stack on some GPP lineups.
Logan Thomas ($3,500)
I’m expecting a good amount of TE exposure to go to Hockenson with no Jefferson, while LaPorta, Kittle, and Goedert are all very affordable and should each get solid ownership too. If you need some extra salary though, I would strongly consider Thomas for cash games, as he gets to face a Falcons defense allowing the second most FPPG to opposing TEs this year. Thomas is coming off his best game, with a huge 9-77-1 line on 11 targets, and at his current salary, all we really need is about a 4-60 line for him to be worth it. I’m expecting that to easily be his floor this game.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks for FanDuel
There are some big price differences between players on FanDuel and DraftKings this week, as Mostert is $2,100 pricier on FanDuel, Walker III is $1,700 more, Kyren is $1,700 more, Moore is $1,500 more, and Thielen is $1,500 more, just to name a few top options that stand out. This is leading to me spending down at RB and targeting some cheap options even in tougher matchups, and I’m also strongly considering going super cheap at QB in my main build with someone like Ridder ($6,800), Geno ($6,800) or Dobbs ($6,700) to make it easier to fit at least one or two expensive WRs. The Niners ($5,000) remain my favorite spend-up defense and the Bucs ($3,400) my favorite value target.
Calvin Ridley ($7,000)
Ridley gets a rematch with the Colts this week after he dominated their week 1 matchup going for 8-101-1. #1 WRs have continued to dominate against the Colts, with Collins, Puka, and Hopkins putting up huge lines against them, and Ridley should easily see 8-12 targets this game, as Zay Jones is likely out again. His price only went up $300 after going for over 17 FP against the Bills last week, and if he puts up another strong line, this will probably be the cheapest price we will be able to play Ridley at for the rest of the year.
Jordan Addison ($6,700) / TJ Hockenson ($6,700)
With Jefferson on IR, we’re going to see a big shift in target share for the Vikings, and I think Addison & Hockenson will be the biggest beneficiaries. I was shocked to see both under $7,000 this week, but that was due to salaries coming out before the official IR status for Jefferson, and you can expect to see pretty much every cash game lineup have at least one if not both of them. I think Hockenson is the most likely score a TD between the two, but I think Addison has a higher ceiling, as he should get multiple long targets, and if he can break a couple, we could be looking at a similar performance to what Moore did to the Commanders last week. Even with Jefferson active, Addison was seeing 5+ targets in all but one game, so I’m expecting a 10-target floor for him this week, and he just happens to draw one of the best possible matchups against a Bears defense allowing 286 pass yards per game.
Breece Hall ($6,800)
It’s not the greatest feeling to recommend someone facing the league’s best rush defense, but Hall is too special of a talent at too low of a price that I just can’t ignore him as a top cash game target. If the Jets fall behind early, which is likely, I think Hall will just be used more heavily in the pass game, which would benefit his upside, and if the Jets can keep this game relatively close, I think Hall will still get 15-20 carries, and he really just needs to break one or two of those runs to pay off his salary. I’m doing my best to jam in Chase and Moore at WR, so I’m looking to save salary but still use high-upside players, and Hall fits that mold perfectly this week on FanDuel.
Use Our DFS Lineup Optimizer for Week 6
Make sure to check out our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to get a great look at even more top projected plays. It is by far the best place to build a large number of lineups quickly using your personalized build rules, ownership preferences, and stacks you want covered. You can also look at projected ownership to help you decide between players if you’d rather get leverage on the field with someone likely to see much lower ownership than similar plays at his position or price point.
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