How Vladimir Guerrero Jr Leveraged His Way To $500 Million (2025)

As arguably the greatest homegrown position player in franchise history, the Toronto Blue Jays have found a way to keep Vladimir Guerrero Jr north of the border for the rest of his career.

The deciding factor for Guerrero was essentially a blank check offered via extension ahead of his final year of arbitration, a treatment only several players in recent history have received.

On Monday, Jeff Passan reported that the two parties were in agreement of a 14-year, $500 million contract extension.

In terms of total value, this is the third-highest contract in all of baseball, trailing just Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani.

But how did the Blue Jays slugger earn himself one of the biggest paydays in MLB history?

The first factor was age.

Guerrero enters his seventh season with the big-league club after just turning 26 years old in March. In that time, Guerrero has accumulated a 21.7 WAR with a .288/.363/.498 slashline over his career. Those metrics combined for an .861 OPS and 137 OPS+, with 160 career home runs.

In terms of accolades, “Vladdy” has reached the All-Star Game each of the last four seasons, alongside two Silver Sluggers, a Gold Glove at third base and three seasons receiving MVP votes.

From entering the Majors as the top prospect in baseball at 20-years-old, Guerrero has done as much as you can ask from a prospect throughout their first six years under team control.

His age and expectations as he enters his prime were the main factor for his contract reaching half a billion dollars. However, with an increasing number of players becoming All-Stars in their early 20s, where does Guerrero rank amongst the rest of the league who would also earn in his tax bracket?

Following a rookie season where he finished sixth in Rookie of the Year voting, followed by a 60-game, COVID-shortened season where he played every game, Guerrero had his best season in 2021.

The slugger led the league in home runs (48), runs (123), OBP (.401), Slugging Percentage (.601) and OPS (1.002). If it were not for Ohtani putting up his best season on both ends of the ball, Guerrero would have more hardware to showcase his historic season, where he made MLB history by launching the most home runs by a player in their age 22 season or younger.

Despite his historic season with the longball, Guerrero has been overlooked in comparison to some of the other prospects to reach the Majors at his age.

In the 2000’s, Guerrero ranks 14th in WAR for players ahead of the age-23 season, trailing Mike Trout at the top of the list by nearly 18 points.

When you jump from ages 20-26, Guerrero drops to 33rd on the list.

Despite being so low on that list, he only trails Soto on the list in terms financially amongst players ahead of their age 27 season.

Of the 32 other players on the list, 11 others received a contract north of $100 million ahead of their age 25 or 26 season.

And, even with inflation taken into account (Inflation calculation uses approximate 2.5-3% annual rate), Guerrero’s new deal only falls behind Trout for the most of this group.

Player (Age, Year of Contract) | Years | Total Value | 2025 Adjusted AAV

Juan Soto (26, 2025) | 15 | 765,000,000 | 51,000,000

Mike Trout (26, 2019) | 12 | 504,305,000 | 42,025,417

Vladimir Guerrero Jr (26, 2025) | 14 | 500,000,000 ∣ 35,714,286

Giancarlo Stanton (25, 2015) | 13 | 413,750,000 | 31,826,923

Bryce Harper (26, 2019) | 13 | 390,900,000 | 30,069,231

Alex Rodriguez (26, 2001) | 10 | 397,860,000 | 39,786,000

Manny Machado (26, 2019) | 10 | 355,500,000 | 35,550,000

Miguel Cabrera (25, 2008) | 8 | 235,565,000 | 29,445,625

Troy Tulowitzki (26, 2011) | 10 | 228,737,500 | 22,873,750

Jason Heyward (26, 2016) | 8 | 222,240,000 | 27,780,000

Xander Bogaerts (26, 2019) | 6 | 142,200,000 | 23,700,000

Alex Bregman (26, 2020) | 5 | 112,500,000 | 22,500,000

A contract's value is not the definitive measure of a player’s value amongst the rest of the league. However, compared with a tool like WAR, which is an all-encompasing statistic, Guerrero being above players like Machado and Stanton may come as a surprise.

This is where the efforts of Barry Praver and Scott Shapiro should be applauded, as they utilized their disadvantages of the Blue Jays in the contract negotiations.

Of course, none of this would be possible if it were not for Guerrero’s production on the field.

Despite being an All-Star in 2023, Vlad had his worst offensive year, finishing with a .788 OPS. His bounce-back 2024 season made the negotiations a lot easier for the agency, which must have began in that season, as Guerrero and teammate Bo Bichette were rumored as potential key pieces to be traded at the deadline.

Instead, Toronto decided to keep their franchise centerpieces, and continue to attempt and compete in the talented AL East.

This led to a busy offseason, which brought in key pieces like Anthony Santander, Andres Gimenez and Max Scherzer to attempt and get over the hump.

Alongside these additions to the team, Toronto also attempted to get the extension with Guerrero completed before the season, and were not successful. This led to the assumption that Guerrero would not continue these negotiations midseason, which was also a strategic move.

But these moves are seen all the time in sports economics, and likely would not lead to this significant of an increase.

Instead, the driving force to keep their corner infielder in Toronto was likely due to Toronto’s inability to sign premiere free agents.

Specifically in this recent window of opportunity, the Blue Jays have been amongst the largest bidders for the game’s top talent, even in some instances being the highest paying offer.

However, the combination of higher income taxes, distance from the typical hometowns of these top-tier players, and the aspect of living in another country yet traveling half of the calendar year back into the United States have caused the Blue Jays to miss out on talent unless they go above the rest of the field.

While that increase in contract value is still not always enough for free agents, it increases the importance on team’s ability to develop talent and keep them within the organization.

Guerrero Jr, who seemingly enjoys the Blue Jays enough to commit to them for the rest of his career, used these specific team factors to his advantage.

This philosophy will likely be used as the blueprint for players like Bichette and Dalton Varsho, who are the next players up for extension.

As long as the ownership’s financial well does not run dry to still acquire outside talent, this could be a more expensive way to compete amongst the other major markets in the sport.

Then, when a team is winning, the inconveniences of living in Toronto seem to not be as important.