By Mark Ross
Thursday’s Opening Day signals the traditional start to the 2025 MLB season, and it will begin the same way the most recent campaign ended – with the Los Angeles Dodgers on top. The Dodgers are heavy favorites to defend their World Series crown, and a two-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs in the Tokyo Series last week only reinforced their front-runner status.
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After defeating the New York Yankees in five games, the Dodgers were installed as favorites to repeat as soon as they lifted the Commissioner’s Trophy. Those odds have only improved after the front office bolstered what was already a championship roster by adding starting pitchers Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki and closer Tanner Scott.
It may be a stretch to say that the 2025 season is shaping up as the Dodgers vs. the field, but the market certainly isn’t shying away from backing the defending champs. Even though Mookie Betts (illness) and Freddie Freeman (injury) were sidelined for the Tokyo Series, Los Angeles has had a fairly uneventful spring training. The same can’t be said for the New York Yankees.
The defending AL champions will open the season with three-fifths of their projected starting rotation on the injured list. Ace Gerrit Cole is out for the season after recently undergoing Tommy John surgery. Luis Gil, last year’s AL Rookie of the Year, is expected to miss at least three months due to a high-grade lat strain, and Clarke Schmidt will start the season on the IL due to a shoulder issue. Additionally, slugger Giancarlo Stanton is out indefinitely as he deals with injuries to both elbows and his calf.
These injuries, combined with Juan Soto’s signing with the New York Mets in free agency, have certainly not helped the Yankees’ odds, but they also haven’t tanked them. The Yankees remain the favorite to represent the AL in the World Series and are tied with the Atlanta Braves as the top challengers to the Dodgers.
2025 World Series odds
The biggest beneficiary of the Yankees’ pain appears to be the Boston Red Sox. After missing the postseason for the third straight year following a .500 campaign, the Red Sox were considered long shots when opening odds were revealed. However, Boston has been extremely active this offseason, acquiring ace Garrett Crochet in a blockbuster trade with the Chicago White Sox and capping it off by signing two-time World Series champion Alex Bregman in mid-February. The Red Sox have since seen their World Series odds improve, and they are now among the top threats to the Yankees for the pennant.
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There’s still a sizeable gap between the Yankees and the Baltimore Orioles, who have injury issues of their own. All-Star shortstop Gunnar Henderson and starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez will open the season on the IL. Elsewhere in the AL, Bregman’s former team, the Houston Astros, are just ahead of the Red Sox, while the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners can be found further down the World Series odds table. Even though the Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals all made the playoffs last year, they are considered also-rans in the AL in 2025 compared to the Yankees.
The AL can still be viewed as competitive in contrast to the perceived gulf between the Dodgers and the rest of the NL. Los Angeles’ closest chasers are the Braves, followed by the Philadelphia Phillies and the Mets. But don’t forget that these three NL East rivals will spend a good part of the season beating up on each other simply to secure a spot in the playoffs. After that, it’s the Chicago Cubs, Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres, all of whom fall in line behind the aforementioned Rangers and Mariners in World Series odds.
Another way to look at the Dodgers’ overwhelming presence as the favorites in the NL is to consider that even though the Mets spent nearly a billion in free agency (headlined by Soto’s record-setting 15-year, $765 million contract), it did little to narrow the gap between them and the defending champs in the oddsmakers’ eyes.
This disparity is even more striking in the NL West. The Diamondbacks are just a season removed from playing in the World Series and made a big move by signing former Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes. In the NL pecking order, they are next in line behind the NL East’s three-headed monster, but they aren’t in the same stratosphere when it comes to their division. The Dodgers are the only team with minus odds (-650) to win their division, with the Diamondbacks well behind (+650) in the NL West picture.
So even if the Diamondbacks make the playoffs, the expectation is that it will be as a wild card simply because they are in the same division as the reigning champs.
Will 2025 be just another chapter in the Dodgers’ seemingly burgeoning dynasty? The oddsmakers seem to think so, but October is still several months away. Let’s play ball!
(Photo of Shohei Ohtani: Kenta Harada / Getty Images)
